Tracking Our ’08 Bowman Prospects – Post 2011 Edition

Back in the early days of this blog we picked up a cheap box of 2008 Bowman Chrome Baseball.  Oh, how young and naive we were back then. (Why yes, we did pick up a case of 2011 Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects – highlights forthcoming after it’s opened.)

Since Bowman is all about the prospect cards, you really have no idea how good your box is for months upon years down the line.  Instead of forgetting about these cards and hoping for the best, we decided to actively break our collective hearts as the prospects get picked off in the minors one by one.

By the way, the original name of this post was the Mid 2011 Edition.  I guess we got distracted by other matters.  In honor of the new CBA that will lessen the talent pool for future minor league teams, let’s revisit our crop and see how many September call ups we got.

We’ll be following up with these guys every few months or so as an experiment.  Here’s our first check in back in May of 2010 and here’s our follow-up in November of ’10.  How much does prospecting really pay off for your average box?  Obviously the odds aren’t that good, but it should be fun to see how many drop out and how quickly and how many make the big leagues and if any stick.  Stats are up to date as of yesterday.

For batters, I’ll give the line AVG/OBP/OPS (I’ll let you do the math on SLG from there if you want).  I’ll also give HR, RBI and SB.
For pitchers, I’ll give ERA, current W-L, SV & BB/SO

If the average type stats are worse than before, I’ll highlight in red.  If it’s better; green.  I’m highlighting the counting stats this time since I’m comparing them to a year ago.  If the player jumped rank mid-season, the stats are cumulative when possible.

Jeudy Valdez (Padres – High A) – .295/.339/.819, 15 HR, 92 RBI, 34 SB – currently playing in Dominican winter league
Duke Welker (Pirates – AA) – 2.76, 4-5, 6 SV, 26 BB/50 K
Johan Limonta (Mariners – AAA) – .310/.373/.842, 15 HR, 86 RBI, 3 SB – currently playing in Venezuelan winter League
Justin Henry (Tigers – AAA) – .314/.414/.824, 0 HR, 47 RBI, 23 SB– currently playing in Venezuelan winter League
Fabio Castillo (Rangers – AA) – 6.36, 3-6, 9 SV, 23 BB/37 K – currently playing in Dominican winter League
Brandon MaGee (Blue Jays – AA) – Not on MiLB.com.  Per Baseball-Reference played in Independent League in 2010 but nowhere in 2011.
Charlie Furbush (Mariners – previously Tigers – MLB) – 3.17, 5-3, 0 SV, 16 BB/61 K (MLB stats – 28 Games – 5.48 ERA, 4-10, 0 SV, 30 BB/67 K)
Jose Vallejo (Astros – AAA; card lists Rangers) – .215/.284/.546, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 19 SB – Played in only 36 games in 2010.
Hector Rondon (Indians – A Short Season) – 3.00, 0-0, 0 SV, 0 BB/2 K – only played in 2 games in 2011.  currently playing in Venezuelan offseason league
Ernesto Mejia (Braves – Previously Royals – AA; card lists Braves) – .297/.375/.906, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 4 SB
Rhyne Hughes (Orioles – AAA; card lists Rays) – .249/.321/.786, 15 HR, 59 RBI, 3 SB (MLB Stats – 14 Games – .213/.275/.530, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB – not brought back to majors in 2011)
Travis Banwart (A’s – AAA) – 4.63, 9-9, 0 SV, 46 BB/120 K
Anthony Varvaro (Braves – Previously Mariners – MLB) – 2.90, 2-8, 1 SV 35 BB/69 K (MLB Stats – 18 Games; 4 Games in 2010 – 2.63 ERA, 0-2, 0 SV, 11 BB/23 K)
Jhonny Nunez (White Sox – AAA; card lists Nationals) – 4.53, 6-6, 1 SV, 36 BB/83 K
David Wood (Royals – A) – last played in A in 2009.  Now appears to be out of baseball (not on MiLB.com).
DJ Jones (Rays – A) – last played in A in 2009.  Now appears to be out of baseball (not on MiLB.com).
Larry Williams (Braves) – last played in High A in 2007.  Now appears to be out of baseball (not on MiLB.com).
Steve Garrison (Yankees – Previously Padres – AA) – 5.58, 4-8, 0 SV, 21 BB/50 K – Played in one MLB game in 2011, pitched 0.2 scoreless innings.
Ivan Nova (Yankees – MLB) – MLB Stats – 28 Games as a starter – 3.70, 16-4, 0 SV, 57 BB/98 K
Jaime Pedroza (Dodgers – High A) – .258/.363/.783, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 11 SB
Zach Britton (Orioles – MLB) – 4 games in the minors – MLB stats – 28 games as a Starter – 4.61, 11-11, 0 SV, 62 BB/97 K
Jake Arrieta (Orioles – MLB) MLB Stats – 22 Games as a Starter – 5.05, 10-8, 0 SV, 59 BB/93 K)
Luis De La Cruz (Cardinals – High A) – .276/.321/.689, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB
Alan Farina (Blue Jays – AA) – 1.56, 2-1, 6 SV, 7 BB/16 K
Helder Velazquez (Rockies – A) – .270/.329/.750, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 11 SB
Danny Brezeale (Braves) – last played in A Ball in 2007.  Now appears to be out of baseball (not on MiLB.com).
Bryan Morris (Pirates – AA; card lists Dodgers) – 3.35, 3-4, 3 SV, 33 BB/64 K
Lucas Duda (Mets – MLB) – 38 games in AAA – .302/.370/1.011, 10 HR, 24 RBI, 0 SB (MLB stats – 100 games; 29 Games in 2010 – .292/.370/.852, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB)
Eric Barrett (Braves – Rookie Ball) – not on MiLB.com – played in Independent ball in 2010, nowhere in 2011
Mitch Canham (Athletics – Previously Padres – AA) – .233/.314/.597, 0 HR, 18 RBI, 2 SB
Ryan Mullins (Twins – AAA) – 8.12, 2-6, 0 SV, 15 BB/31 K
Yamaico Navarro (Royals – Previously Red Sox – MLB) – 59 games in minors – .264/.344/.7807 HR, 22 RBI, 6 SB (MLB stats – 22 Games – .250/.303/.653, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB)
Carlos Santana (Indians – MLB; card lists Dodgers) – MLB stats – 155 Games – .239/.351/.808, 27 HR, 79 RBI, 5 SB)
Sergio Morales (White Sox – A) – last played in High A in 2009.  Now appears to be out of baseball (not on MiLB.com).
Zhenwang Zhang (Yankess) – apparently the first player born in the People’s Republic of China to sign a MLB contract with the permission of the China Baseball Association – doesn’t appear to have played a game in the minors or majors
Our Autographed Card:  Jordan Schafer (Astros – Previously Braves – MLB) – 47 games in AAA – .283/.335/.688, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB (MLB stats – 82 games – .242/.309/.624, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 22 SB)

Players that made it to the majors:  11 (up from 7)
Players out of baseball: 8  (up from 4 – now counting active but did not play that turned out to be gone)
Players promoted to next level:  8 (down from 15)
Players demoted to lower level: 4 (up from 2)

First impression – I’m surprised at the percentages so far.  I expected to see fewer people reach the majors and more dropouts already.  I think the diminishing returns are about to start.  After 3 years, I get the impression that we’ve seen most of what we’re going to see from some of these guys.  There may be a couple more that really continue to improve, but I expect a chunk of dropoffs next year.

Second impression – I always expect more trades than there are. I think there were 3 or 4 that changed hands.  A couple of these guys are already established major leaguers, which shouldn’t be surprising, but it is.  No real September call ups like I expected to see, either.

Guys to watch:  Furbush dropped off and struggled in the majors, Justin Henry is still doing really well, I think we’ll see Jeudy Valdez in the majors next year, same goes for Mejia who is well-rounded now, Bryan Morris is no longer impressive, Duda is turning out to be decent in the majors as I stated, and Santana is coming along despite the lower avg line, and Nova’s stats are surprising in a good way.  Basically the same guys as before.

We’ll check in again mid-way through next year (hopefully).  What are your thoughts now that we’ve done this a few times?  Are you as surprised as I am with how many of these guys are reaching and actually impacting the major leagues?  Does this make you want to prospect a little on your own?  Should we try a box of 2009 Bowman and start the same process to see how the years compare?

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